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Real-Time Hedging Signals to Protect Your Portfolio

Data-driven hedging signals for smarter portfolio protection.

Market Risk Pulse

Turns the market’s warning signs into one easy 0–100 risk score, updated every weekday before the opening bell.

Last updated: October 14th, 2025

Today
Hedge pressure is higher today as SPY slid hard and the VIX term structure shows stress rising. The last days’ moves were sharp, with SPY down about 18 points and the VIX trio moving higher, signaling risk hedges are being bought more aggressively. The VIX/VIX3M ratio nudged up toward caution, and the 10 day average sits near the 0.87 area, marking a shift toward more hedging. In short, insurance costs are rising fast but not everywhere, yet the trend is clear.
This Week
Over the week hedge demand moved from calmer to heavier as the market traded more swings. SPY dropped, then steadied, then fell again, with big one day shifts adding to the hedge read. The breadth signal remained negative, showing more hedges being put in place rather than taken off. Overall hedge pressure rose from mild to moderate, suggesting traders are seeking protection as downside risks linger.
Macro Watch
Going forward watch how the VIX term structure and SPY action unfold together. If VIX stays above its shorter end and the ratio stays elevated, hedging could stay firm. A continued creep higher in the 10 day SMA of the ratio would reinforce caution. If SPY stabilizes and volatility cools, hedge demand could ease, but any fresh drop could snap back hedging quickly. In sum, the door to risk-off feels partially ajar, with hedges likely to stay active until a clear trend shifts.

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Chart Overview

Shows the composite hedging score over the selected lookback window. Higher values indicate more intense market hedging activity.

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SPY price action alongside the VIX term-structure ratio. Shaded zones highlight inversions (ratio > 1.0) where hedge demand typically accelerates.

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Spot VIX versus VIX3M. Watch for VIX trading above VIX3M as a sign of regime stress; the spread line highlights crossovers.

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VIX/VIX3M ratio with a 10-day smoothing curve and risk thresholds. Horizontal bands mark caution (0.90), hedge bias (1.00), and stress (1.10).

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Percentage spread between VIX3M and VIX ((VIX3M - VIX) / VIX). Sustained negatives indicate inverted term structure and rising hedge pressure.

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Tracks the CBOE equity put/call ratio and its 5-day average. Higher readings signal heavier hedging via protective puts.

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Captures tail-risk demand via the CBOE SKEW index. Elevated levels indicate appetite for out-of-the-money crash hedges.

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Tracks 3-month and 2-year Treasury yields alongside the front-end curve spread to highlight short-term funding stress.

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Compares 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields with the classic 10y-2y curve to surface structural, long-term market risk.

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SPY vs its 50- and 200-day moving averages to contextualize equity trend stress alongside hedging measures.

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Rolling drawdown of SPY from its trailing peak. Deeper drawdowns typically appear in tandem with aggressive hedging.

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Counts the number of days in the past month where SPY fell while VIX rose and 10y yields dropped – a classic risk-off cluster.