Hedge Pressure Gauge
Turns the market's warning signs into one easy 0-100 risk score, updated every weekday before the opening bell.
This chart serves as a backtest of the Hedge Pressure indicator, showing its historical evolution over the displayed timeline.
Historic Pressure Score Trend shows a current composite around 57.7, in the elevated/concern zone. The move over the last week shifted from a weaker reading to a higher, more cautious stance, with a notable weekly increase. The score aligns with elevated hedge pressure and a potential for hedging opportunities. Look for further gains to confirm a renewed risk-off tilt, or a stabilization that might ease hedging pressure.
Introduction
This dashboard monitors key market signals to identify when hedging can protect your portfolio. Hedging acts like insurance for investments—similar to insuring your car against accidents, it safeguards against major market downturns while allowing you to stay invested and benefit from gains.
Hedging is crucial because markets are unpredictable, and sharp declines can erase years of returns. By hedging, you limit losses during tough times without selling assets (which could trigger taxes and lock in losses). Instead, you maintain exposure to upside potential while cushioning downside risk, helping you sleep better at night. The Hedge Score uses real market data to signal when this protection may be warranted.
How the Hedge Score works
| Step | Description |
|---|---|
| Track | Track data points such as volatility, options flow, credit spreads and drawdown. |
| Score | Score each chart using the formula: Score_i = 100 × (value_i - min_historical) / (max_historical - min_historical). In simple terms, this scales the current value to a 0-100 range based on its historical highs and lows. |
| Weight | Assign higher weight to signals that have been more reliable historically. For example, a signal that's been right 80% of the time gets more influence than one that's only right 50% of the time. |
| Combine | Compute a weighted average of the chart scores using the formula: Final Score = Σ (Score_i × Weight_i) / Σ Weight_i. In simple terms, this blends all the scores together, giving more reliable signals a bigger role. |
| Smooth | Apply smoothing using the exponential moving average formula: Smoothed_t = α × Raw_t + (1 - α) × Smoothed_{t-1}, where α is a smoothing factor between 0 and 1. In simple terms, this reduces sudden jumps from one day to the next. |
| Scale | Rescale and round the final value to the 0-100 Hedge Score using: Hedge Score = max(0, min(100, round(Smoothed Value))). In simple terms, this keeps the score between 0 and 100 and rounds it to a whole number. |
What the score means
| Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 0-32 | Low - calm, little sign of market stress. |
| 33-56 | Moderate - watchful, some signs of worry. |
| 57-69 | Elevated - concern; consider protection. |
| 70-100 | High - danger; many signals point to higher risk. |
How to Use the Historic Pressure Score Trend
The Historic Pressure Score Trend chart above shows how the Hedge Score has evolved over time. Compare this with the SPY Drawdown chart further down the page to see how the score's signals align with market declines. When the Hedge Score rises into elevated or high ranges (57+), it often precedes or coincides with significant market pullbacks. By comparing these two charts, you can see how timely hedging notifications could have helped protect your portfolio during periods of market stress, allowing you to maintain exposure to upside potential while limiting downside risk.
Public data
All data utilized is publicly available. For further information, please visit the following pages:
| Data Source |
|---|
| Daily Treasury Yield Rates |
| Secured Overnight Financing Rate |
| CBOE VIX index |
| CBOE 3 month VIX index |
| CBOE Put/Call volume and ratios |
| SPY Chart |
Limitations
This tool is not financial advice. The Hedge Score relies on historical data and patterns, which do not predict future performance. Use it as one factor among many in your investment decisions.